Polymarket prediction markets

Polymarket is a peer of Hyperliquid in Axe. Prediction-market work has the same shape as perps work — a thesis, a frame, a watch, a close — and the cockpit treats it the same way.

Read the question

/odds "Will X happen by EOY 2026?"        # current odds
/liquidity above                          # depth around the current mid
/resolution above                         # resolution criteria and oracle
/history above 30d                        # odds curve over the last month

above is a session shorthand for "the question we just opened." Polymarket questions tend to be long strings; the cockpit assumes you do not want to retype them.

Frame a session

/poly-open Will the SEC approve X by EOY 2026? Trying to figure out whether the regulatory leak prices in.
…
/poly-update Headline confirmed; odds cross hit; thesis played; closing.

Like perps, the opener and closer write to memory. The protocol credits the work; the next session can recall the thesis without you rebuilding it.

Watch the question

/watch odds("Will X happen by EOY 2026?") cross 0.55
/watch liquidity(above) drop > 30%
/watch resolution(above) within 7d

Watches over prediction markets handle the asymmetric event clock — most of the value is in being on the question before it resolves, not after. A watch that fires three minutes before a settlement is worth a lot more than a dashboard you check the next morning.

Cross-venue thesis

Most catalysts move both perps and prediction markets. Axe lets one session frame both legs:

/perps-open ETH perps; CPI print
/poly-open Will CPI come in below consensus?
/watch funding(ETH) > 0.015 OR odds(above) cross 0.6

The session ledger ties the two legs together. Memory carries the link. The close captures how each side moved and what it implied about the other.

Investigate the past

A search harness over Polymarket history — questions, odds curves, resolution outcomes — is part of the prediction-markets module. Use it when a session needs to ground a base rate ("how often do questions framed like this resolve YES?") in actual historical data, not a guess.

Authenticated actions

Polymarket actions go through the same safety policy as Hyperliquid. Read-only public data is the default; account-mutating actions are explicitly gated.